{"id":"analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","canonicalSlug":"analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","url":"https://wellficent.com/en/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","language":"en","title":"Geothermal economics: converting net power into annual energy","summary":"A transparent capacity-factor sensitivity shows why a 33 MW operating milestone cannot establish annual revenue by itself.","body":["Fervo’s 1 October release reports 33 MW of net electrical production at Cape Station’s first GeoBlock. That is a plant-block power achievement, not a single-well measurement or a full-year production record. The following calculation uses it as an illustrative reference power; it is not a forecast of this project.","For a non-leap year, energy = reference power × 8,760 hours × capacity factor. The capacity factor here is annual average net power divided by the assumed 33 MW reference. It includes outages and partial-load operation, unlike a simple count of available hours. Assumed factors of 70%, 80% and 90% give 202,356, 231,264 and 260,172 MWh per year.","At a hypothetical constant realized price of USD 70/MWh, the 80% case gives USD 16,188,480 in gross electricity revenue. One percentage point changes energy by 2,890.8 MWh and gross revenue by USD 202,356. This assumed price is not Fervo’s disclosed PPA price, and the result excludes financing, operating expenses, taxes, price variation and other contract terms.","A decision needs time-stamped net export readings, the metering boundary, curtailment, outages and actual realized prices. Do not subtract pumping power twice if already included in the net meter, or allocate block output equally among wells without flow and heat evidence. These three cases are arithmetic sensitivities with no probabilities or calibrated uncertainty intervals."],"keyPoints":[],"sections":[],"text":"Geothermal economics: converting net power into annual energy\n\nA transparent capacity-factor sensitivity shows why a 33 MW operating milestone cannot establish annual revenue by itself.\n\nFervo’s 1 October release reports 33 MW of net electrical production at Cape Station’s first GeoBlock. That is a plant-block power achievement, not a single-well measurement or a full-year production record. The following calculation uses it as an illustrative reference power; it is not a forecast of this project.\n\nFor a non-leap year, energy = reference power × 8,760 hours × capacity factor. The capacity factor here is annual average net power divided by the assumed 33 MW reference. It includes outages and partial-load operation, unlike a simple count of available hours. Assumed factors of 70%, 80% and 90% give 202,356, 231,264 and 260,172 MWh per year.\n\nAt a hypothetical constant realized price of USD 70/MWh, the 80% case gives USD 16,188,480 in gross electricity revenue. One percentage point changes energy by 2,890.8 MWh and gross revenue by USD 202,356. This assumed price is not Fervo’s disclosed PPA price, and the result excludes financing, operating expenses, taxes, price variation and other contract terms.\n\nA decision needs time-stamped net export readings, the metering boundary, curtailment, outages and actual realized prices. Do not subtract pumping power twice if already included in the net meter, or allocate block output equally among wells without flow and heat evidence. These three cases are arithmetic sensitivities with no probabilities or calibrated uncertainty intervals.\n\nTechnical and economic analysis\n\nAnalysis as of: 2026-10-08\n\nEvidence cutoff: 2026-10-08\n\nOutlook horizon: 2026–2027\n\nIllustrative sensitivity\n\nIllustrative annual energy at a 33 MW reference\n\nAssumed 33 MW reference and 8,760 hours, varying capacity factor; not measured annual output or a Cape Station forecast.\n\nThese calculations illustrate stated assumptions; they are not observations or a calibrated forecast.\n\n70% capacity factor: 202,356 MWh/year\n\n80% capacity factor: 231,264 MWh/year\n\n90% capacity factor: 260,172 MWh/year","category":"energy","region":"world","topics":["geothermal","electricity","capacity-factor","energy-economics"],"eventDate":"2026-10-08","eventDateBasis":"analysis-as-of-date","publishedAt":"2026-10-08T13:39:44Z","modifiedAt":"2026-10-08T13:39:44Z","publicationBasis":"first-publication","preparedAt":"2026-10-08T13:27:32Z","sourcePublishedAt":"2026-10-01","translatedAt":null,"sources":[{"name":"Fervo Energy","url":"https://ir.fervoenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fervo-energy-declares-commercial-operation-cape-station-ahead","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","checkedAt":"2026-10-08"}],"translations":{"en":"https://wellficent.com/en/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","tr":"https://wellficent.com/tr/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","ar":"https://wellficent.com/ar/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","fr":"https://wellficent.com/fr/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","es":"https://wellficent.com/es/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","ru":"https://wellficent.com/ru/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026","pt":"https://wellficent.com/pt/news/analysis-geothermal-net-power-annual-energy-revenue-october-2026"},"corrections":[],"locations":[{"id":"country-us","type":"country","countryCode":"US","name":{"en":"United States","tr":"Amerika Birleşik Devletleri","ar":"الولايات المتحدة","fr":"États-Unis","es":"Estados Unidos","ru":"США","pt":"Estados Unidos"},"context":{"en":"Country identified in the primary source; no site coordinates asserted.","tr":"Birincil kaynakta belirtilen ülke; saha koordinatı iddiası yok.","ar":"البلد المحدد في المصدر الأصلي؛ لا ندعي إحداثيات موقع.","fr":"Pays identifié dans la source primaire; aucune coordonnée de site affirmée.","es":"País identificado en la fuente primaria; no se afirman coordenadas del sitio.","ru":"Страна указана в первоисточнике; координаты площадки не заявлены.","pt":"País identificado na fonte primária; não se afirmam coordenadas do local."},"source":{"name":"Fervo Energy","url":"https://ir.fervoenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fervo-energy-declares-commercial-operation-cape-station-ahead","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","checkedAt":"2026-10-08"}}],"type":"analysis","analysis":{"kind":"technical-economic","asOf":"2026-10-08","evidenceCutoff":"2026-10-08","horizon":"2026–2027","chart":{"kind":"illustrative","title":{"en":"Illustrative annual energy at a 33 MW reference","tr":"33 MW referansla örnek yıllık enerji","ar":"طاقة سنوية توضيحية بمرجع 33 MW","fr":"Énergie annuelle illustrative avec une référence de 33 MW","es":"Energía anual ilustrativa con referencia de 33 MW","ru":"Условная годовая энергия при опорных 33 MW","pt":"Energia anual ilustrativa com referência de 33 MW"},"unit":"MWh/year","unitLabel":{"en":"MWh/year","tr":"MWh/yıl","ar":"MWh/سنة","fr":"MWh/an","es":"MWh/año","ru":"MWh/год","pt":"MWh/ano"},"note":{"en":"Assumed 33 MW reference and 8,760 hours, varying capacity factor; not measured annual output or a Cape Station forecast.","tr":"Varsayılan 33 MW referans ve 8.760 saat; kapasite faktörü değişir. Ölçülmüş yıllık çıktı veya Cape Station tahmini değildir.","ar":"مرجع مفترض 33 MW و8,760 ساعة مع تغيير عامل السعة؛ ليست طاقة سنوية مقاسة أو توقعاً لـCape Station.","fr":"Référence supposée de 33 MW et 8 760 heures, facteur de charge variable; ni production annuelle mesurée ni prévision de Cape Station.","es":"Referencia supuesta de 33 MW y 8.760 horas, variando factor de capacidad; no es producción anual medida ni pronóstico de Cape Station.","ru":"Условные 33 MW и 8 760 часов при разных коэффициентах; не годовое измерение и не прогноз Cape Station.","pt":"Referência suposta de 33 MW e 8.760 horas, variando fator de capacidade; não é produção anual medida nem previsão de Cape Station."},"rows":[{"value":202356,"label":{"en":"70% capacity factor","tr":"%70 kapasite faktörü","ar":"عامل سعة 70%","fr":"Facteur de charge de 70%","es":"Factor de capacidad del 70%","ru":"Коэффициент использования 70%","pt":"Fator de capacidade de 70%"}},{"value":231264,"label":{"en":"80% capacity factor","tr":"%80 kapasite faktörü","ar":"عامل سعة 80%","fr":"Facteur de charge de 80%","es":"Factor de capacidad del 80%","ru":"Коэффициент использования 80%","pt":"Fator de capacidade de 80%"}},{"value":260172,"label":{"en":"90% capacity factor","tr":"%90 kapasite faktörü","ar":"عامل سعة 90%","fr":"Facteur de charge de 90%","es":"Factor de capacidad del 90%","ru":"Коэффициент использования 90%","pt":"Fator de capacidade de 90%"}}]}}}