{"id":"analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","canonicalSlug":"analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","url":"https://wellficent.com/en/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","language":"en","title":"Lundali-1: what first gas can and cannot say about sustained deliverability","summary":"A reported 10 MMscfd start is a measurement point; reserves and commercial life require a production history.","body":["OGDCL told the Pakistan Stock Exchange on 9 September that Lundali-1, in the Sukhpur-II block in Sindh, first delivered gas on 6 September. The filing reports a current rate of 10 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) at 2,000 psi wellhead pressure, with gas supplied to SSGC. The filing identifies OGDCL as a 30% working-interest partner, not the block operator.","This analysis is as of 6 October 2026. It treats the announced rate as a point-in-time well figure. The filing does not publish a Lundali production time series, reservoir pressure trend, gas composition, reserves estimate or sales terms. Those omissions set the limit on any calculation of long-run recovery or project value."],"keyPoints":["10 MMscfd is a reported current well rate, not a plateau commitment.","Pressure, uptime and gas quality determine delivered volumes and cash flow.","Scenario volumes below are illustrative and are not a forecast."],"sections":[{"heading":"Separate flow rate from capacity","paragraphs":["A flow rate at a reported wellhead pressure establishes that gas was moving through a commissioned system on the reporting date. It does not identify the rate at which the reservoir can supply gas for months or years. A stabilized deliverability test would pair rates with flowing pressure, shut-in pressure and test duration; a single headline number lacks those comparisons.","The difference matters for a buyer and an operator. Surface back-pressure, choke setting and processing constraints can change the observed rate without a corresponding change in gas in place. Conversely, a high initial rate can decline if pressure support and connected reservoir volume are limited. No such diagnosis is possible from this release alone."]},{"heading":"Link the well to the sales chain","paragraphs":["OGDCL says the gas is supplied to SSGC. That identifies a sales destination, but it does not disclose meter readings, gas heating value, processing shrinkage or outages. Saleable energy and physical wellhead volume are therefore different quantities. The 2,000 psi figure is wellhead pressure, not reservoir pressure or a demonstrated network inlet specification.","The Sukhpur-II licence became effective in December 2025, while Lundali-1 was drilled under an earlier venture. Current working interests split 30% OGDCL, 25% Prime Global Energies as operator, 30% Mari Energies and 15% Turkish Petroleum Overseas. Working interest does not by itself state each party's revenue entitlement after contracts, costs and taxes."]},{"heading":"Test a transparent uptime sensitivity","paragraphs":["For illustration only, hold the 10 MMscfd rate constant for 365 days. At 100% availability, 10 × 365 = 3,650 MMscf, or 3.65 Bscf, of gross wellhead gas. At hypothetical 90%, 80% and 70% availability, the same formula yields 3.285, 2.920 and 2.555 Bscf respectively. These are arithmetic envelopes, not measured or predicted 2026 output.","The 90% case loses 0.365 Bscf against the perfect-uptime case before any decline or gas shrinkage. No price is assigned because the release gives no sales price, calorific value or cost structure. Multiplying a volume by an invented tariff would imply a project valuation unsupported by the evidence."]},{"heading":"Identify the economic gate","paragraphs":["A commercial decision would compare net sales receipts with compression, processing, transport and maintenance costs over time. Production tests, metered monthly sales and a pressure trend would narrow the volume estimate first. A decline curve fitted to a few initial days could be misleading because cleanup and commissioning can dominate early rates.","For the partners, the actionable question is whether stable net deliveries justify incremental facilities and future drilling. It is not whether 10 MMscfd sounds large in isolation. A lower but reliable rate may have more value than intermittent peaks if fixed infrastructure and supply obligations are significant."]},{"heading":"Watch the next evidence","paragraphs":["The first useful disclosures would be monthly metered deliveries, uptime, any gas-treatment loss and repeated flowing and shut-in pressure measurements. They would distinguish well limitations from surface restrictions. A reserves or resource statement needs its own technical basis and cannot be reverse-engineered from one reported daily rate.","If later measurements show sustained flow near the initial figure with stable pressure, the production envelope becomes more credible. If pressures fall, downtime rises or gas quality limits sales, expectations must be reset. As of the evidence cutoff, both paths remain open."]}],"text":"Lundali-1: what first gas can and cannot say about sustained deliverability\n\nA reported 10 MMscfd start is a measurement point; reserves and commercial life require a production history.\n\n10 MMscfd is a reported current well rate, not a plateau commitment.\n\nPressure, uptime and gas quality determine delivered volumes and cash flow.\n\nScenario volumes below are illustrative and are not a forecast.\n\nOGDCL told the Pakistan Stock Exchange on 9 September that Lundali-1, in the Sukhpur-II block in Sindh, first delivered gas on 6 September. The filing reports a current rate of 10 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) at 2,000 psi wellhead pressure, with gas supplied to SSGC. The filing identifies OGDCL as a 30% working-interest partner, not the block operator.\n\nThis analysis is as of 6 October 2026. It treats the announced rate as a point-in-time well figure. The filing does not publish a Lundali production time series, reservoir pressure trend, gas composition, reserves estimate or sales terms. Those omissions set the limit on any calculation of long-run recovery or project value.\n\nSeparate flow rate from capacity\n\nA flow rate at a reported wellhead pressure establishes that gas was moving through a commissioned system on the reporting date. It does not identify the rate at which the reservoir can supply gas for months or years. A stabilized deliverability test would pair rates with flowing pressure, shut-in pressure and test duration; a single headline number lacks those comparisons.\n\nThe difference matters for a buyer and an operator. Surface back-pressure, choke setting and processing constraints can change the observed rate without a corresponding change in gas in place. Conversely, a high initial rate can decline if pressure support and connected reservoir volume are limited. No such diagnosis is possible from this release alone.\n\nLink the well to the sales chain\n\nOGDCL says the gas is supplied to SSGC. That identifies a sales destination, but it does not disclose meter readings, gas heating value, processing shrinkage or outages. Saleable energy and physical wellhead volume are therefore different quantities. The 2,000 psi figure is wellhead pressure, not reservoir pressure or a demonstrated network inlet specification.\n\nThe Sukhpur-II licence became effective in December 2025, while Lundali-1 was drilled under an earlier venture. Current working interests split 30% OGDCL, 25% Prime Global Energies as operator, 30% Mari Energies and 15% Turkish Petroleum Overseas. Working interest does not by itself state each party's revenue entitlement after contracts, costs and taxes.\n\nTest a transparent uptime sensitivity\n\nFor illustration only, hold the 10 MMscfd rate constant for 365 days. At 100% availability, 10 × 365 = 3,650 MMscf, or 3.65 Bscf, of gross wellhead gas. At hypothetical 90%, 80% and 70% availability, the same formula yields 3.285, 2.920 and 2.555 Bscf respectively. These are arithmetic envelopes, not measured or predicted 2026 output.\n\nThe 90% case loses 0.365 Bscf against the perfect-uptime case before any decline or gas shrinkage. No price is assigned because the release gives no sales price, calorific value or cost structure. Multiplying a volume by an invented tariff would imply a project valuation unsupported by the evidence.\n\nIdentify the economic gate\n\nA commercial decision would compare net sales receipts with compression, processing, transport and maintenance costs over time. Production tests, metered monthly sales and a pressure trend would narrow the volume estimate first. A decline curve fitted to a few initial days could be misleading because cleanup and commissioning can dominate early rates.\n\nFor the partners, the actionable question is whether stable net deliveries justify incremental facilities and future drilling. It is not whether 10 MMscfd sounds large in isolation. A lower but reliable rate may have more value than intermittent peaks if fixed infrastructure and supply obligations are significant.\n\nWatch the next evidence\n\nThe first useful disclosures would be monthly metered deliveries, uptime, any gas-treatment loss and repeated flowing and shut-in pressure measurements. They would distinguish well limitations from surface restrictions. A reserves or resource statement needs its own technical basis and cannot be reverse-engineered from one reported daily rate.\n\nIf later measurements show sustained flow near the initial figure with stable pressure, the production envelope becomes more credible. If pressures fall, downtime rises or gas quality limits sales, expectations must be reset. As of the evidence cutoff, both paths remain open.\n\nTechnical and economic analysis\n\nAnalysis as of: 2026-10-06\n\nEvidence cutoff: 2026-10-06\n\nOutlook horizon: 2026–2027\n\nIllustrative sensitivity\n\nIllustrative Lundali volume by availability\n\n10 MMscfd × 365 days × assumed availability; gross, flat-rate scenario.\n\nThese calculations illustrate stated assumptions; they are not observations or a calibrated forecast.\n\n100% availability: 3.65 Bscf/year\n\n90% availability: 3.285 Bscf/year\n\n80% availability: 2.92 Bscf/year\n\n70% availability: 2.555 Bscf/year","category":"energy","region":"world","topics":["technical-analysis","energy-economics","gas-wells","deliverability"],"eventDate":"2026-10-06","eventDateBasis":"analysis-as-of-date","publishedAt":"2026-10-06T21:11:36Z","modifiedAt":"2026-10-06T21:11:36Z","publicationBasis":"first-publication","preparedAt":null,"sourcePublishedAt":"2026-09-09","translatedAt":null,"sources":[{"name":"OGDCL, Pakistan Stock Exchange filing","url":"https://dps.psx.com.pk/download/document/282420.pdf","checkedAt":"2026-10-06","publishedAt":"2026-09-09"}],"translations":{"en":"https://wellficent.com/en/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","tr":"https://wellficent.com/tr/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","ar":"https://wellficent.com/ar/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","fr":"https://wellficent.com/fr/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","es":"https://wellficent.com/es/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","ru":"https://wellficent.com/ru/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026","pt":"https://wellficent.com/pt/news/analysis-oil-lundali-deliverability-2026"},"corrections":[],"locations":[],"type":"analysis","analysis":{"kind":"technical-economic","asOf":"2026-10-06","evidenceCutoff":"2026-10-06","horizon":"2026–2027","chart":{"kind":"illustrative","title":{"en":"Illustrative Lundali volume by availability","tr":"Varsayımsal Lundali hacmi ve çalışır süre","ar":"حجم لوندالي الافتراضي حسب الإتاحة","fr":"Volume hypothétique de Lundali selon la disponibilité","es":"Volumen hipotético de Lundali por disponibilidad","ru":"Иллюстративный годовой объём Lundali в зависимости от доступности","pt":"Volume ilustrativo de Lundali por disponibilidade"},"unit":"Bscf/year","unitLabel":{"en":"Bscf/year","tr":"Bscf/yıl","ar":"مليار قدم مكعب قياسي/سنة","fr":"Bscf/an","es":"Bscf/año","ru":"млрд стандартных кубических футов в год (Bscf/год)","pt":"Bscf/ano"},"note":{"en":"10 MMscfd × 365 days × assumed availability; gross, flat-rate scenario.","tr":"10 MMscfd × 365 gün × varsayılan çalışır süre; brüt ve sabit hızlı senaryo.","ar":"10 ملايين قدم مكعبة يومياً × 365 يوماً × الإتاحة المفترضة؛ حجم إجمالي بمعدل ثابت.","fr":"10 MMscf/j × 365 jours × disponibilité supposée ; scénario brut à débit constant.","es":"10 MMpcd × 365 días × disponibilidad supuesta; escenario bruto de tasa constante.","ru":"10 MMscfd × 365 дней × предполагаемая доступность; валовой объём при постоянном дебите.","pt":"10 MMscfd × 365 dias × disponibilidade assumida; cenário bruto a taxa constante."},"rows":[{"label":{"en":"100% availability","tr":"%100 çalışır süre","ar":"إتاحة 100%","fr":"Disponibilité 100 %","es":"Disponibilidad 100%","ru":"100% доступности","pt":"100% de disponibilidade"},"value":3.65},{"label":{"en":"90% availability","tr":"%90 çalışır süre","ar":"إتاحة 90%","fr":"Disponibilité 90 %","es":"Disponibilidad 90%","ru":"90% доступности","pt":"90% de disponibilidade"},"value":3.285},{"label":{"en":"80% availability","tr":"%80 çalışır süre","ar":"إتاحة 80%","fr":"Disponibilité 80 %","es":"Disponibilidad 80%","ru":"80% доступности","pt":"80% de disponibilidade"},"value":2.92},{"label":{"en":"70% availability","tr":"%70 çalışır süre","ar":"إتاحة 70%","fr":"Disponibilité 70 %","es":"Disponibilidad 70%","ru":"70% доступности","pt":"70% de disponibilidade"},"value":2.555}]}}}