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The EIA's natural-gas outlook released on 6 October 2026 estimates US inventories at 3,523 billion cubic feet at the end of September. It forecasts 3,850 billion cubic feet at the end of October, 2% above the five-year average. The first figure is an agency estimate for a completed month; the second remains a forecast. Neither should be presented as an observed 9 October storage reading.
The same edition forecasts annual US dry-gas production of 112.20 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.13 in 2027, against LNG exports of 17.6 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day. Henry Hub annual prices are forecast at USD 3.48 per million British thermal units in 2026 and USD 3.16 in 2027. The agency expects output growth to accommodate rising export and domestic demand, subject to its weather and market assumptions.
For international industrial users, the important boundary is between a US gas hub and delivered LNG. Liquefaction consumes energy, shipping has a separate cost, and receiving terminals require regasification. Contract formulas, location and exchange rates also matter. A Henry Hub forecast cannot therefore be read as an Asian or European delivered cargo price, or as a Turkish factory's gas tariff. Higher US exports describe a physical supply channel, not an automatic reduction in every importing market's bill.
Storage provides flexibility rather than an unconditional guarantee. Cold weather can raise withdrawals; transport limitations can prevent a national surplus from reaching a particular customer on time. Buyers can use the release to test gas-volume and fuel-price assumptions, while checking their own delivery point, contract index and adjustment lag. The outlook supports comparison of dated expectations. It does not resolve weather outcomes, regional congestion or the final cost of a future LNG shipment.