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ADB’s 23 September 2026 outlook raises its South Asia growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4% from 6.0% in July and lowers its 2027 projection by 0.2 percentage points to 6.5%. South Asia includes Pakistan and Afghanistan, alongside other economies; the regional rates must not be attributed to either country individually.
The bank identifies energy disruption and stronger El Niño conditions among outlook risks. Lower hydropower availability and higher fuel requirements are potential transmission channels, not confirmed generation losses at specific plants. For energy users, the report supports examining fuel exposure and seasonal supply resilience while preserving the distinction between a forecast, a risk scenario and observed operating data.