Analysis
Fervo’s 1 October release reports 33 MW of net electrical production at Cape Station’s first GeoBlock. That is a plant-block power achievement, not a single-well measurement or a full-year production record. The following calculation uses it as an illustrative reference power; it is not a forecast of this project.
For a non-leap year, energy = reference power × 8,760 hours × capacity factor. The capacity factor here is annual average net power divided by the assumed 33 MW reference. It includes outages and partial-load operation, unlike a simple count of available hours. Assumed factors of 70%, 80% and 90% give 202,356, 231,264 and 260,172 MWh per year.
At a hypothetical constant realized price of USD 70/MWh, the 80% case gives USD 16,188,480 in gross electricity revenue. One percentage point changes energy by 2,890.8 MWh and gross revenue by USD 202,356. This assumed price is not Fervo’s disclosed PPA price, and the result excludes financing, operating expenses, taxes, price variation and other contract terms.
A decision needs time-stamped net export readings, the metering boundary, curtailment, outages and actual realized prices. Do not subtract pumping power twice if already included in the net meter, or allocate block output equally among wells without flow and heat evidence. These three cases are arithmetic sensitivities with no probabilities or calibrated uncertainty intervals.