Analysis
Equinor’s 7 October estimate is NOK 26.5 billion in 2026 value. It restates the original 2022 estimate as NOK 15.2 billion in current money, against NOK 13.2 billion nominally at submission. On the operator’s stated comparable-price basis, the revision is NOK 11.3 billion, about 74.3%. That is a budget-estimate comparison, not audited overspending, measured engineering inefficiency or proof of a particular cause.
The separate December 2025 estimate was just over NOK 20 billion in 2025 value; without its exact amount and adjustment basis, an exact percentage comparison would be misleading. Likewise, roughly 60% physical completion does not establish 60% expenditure. A remaining-investment decision needs cash already spent, committed contracts, remaining cost and scope. Sunk expenditure should not be charged again as a future incremental payment.
For an independent timing example, assume ten annual end-of-year net cash receipts of NOK 2 billion each in constant 2026 money and an 8% real discount rate. Present value is the sum of 2/(1.08)^t for t=1 through 10: NOK 13.4202 billion. Shifting all ten receipts one or two years later gives NOK 12.4261 or 11.5056 billion. The payment count stays ten; the model changes timing rather than deleting revenue years.
These invented cash receipts are not Snøhvit forecasts, and the chart is not its project NPV. It excludes remaining investment, taxes, financing and risk adjustments. Equinor retains compression in 2029 and electrification in 2030; the delay cases do not assert a changed schedule. Project-level cash-flow evidence and consistent scope are needed to turn this sensitivity into a decision.