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Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the Selic rate to 13.75% a year at its 16 September meeting. The committee said recent data showed economic activity gradually moderating, especially in cyclical sectors, while the labour market remained tight. Headline and average underlying inflation measures had slowed but remained above the target.
In its reference scenario, Copom projected inflation at 5.2% for 2026, 3.9% for 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028. Focus survey expectations for 2026 and 2027 were 4.9% and 4.3%. The committee said heightened uncertainty and risks around the outlook called for a cautious approach and that it would continue monitoring developments.