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The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) published its 2026 national risk assessment on gas supply security on October 23. The statutory review concludes that the market remains resilient and is expected to keep meeting security requirements. It presents a risk assessment, not a guarantee against disruption or a forecast of future prices. The department says its conclusions apply to the risks assessed and cannot anticipate every extreme, unprecedented or combined event.
The assessment describes a diversified supply mix. Its 2025 table reports gross supply of 796 terawatt-hours: 42% from UK production, 40% from pipeline imports from Norway, 17% from liquefied natural gas and less than 1% through interconnectors with Belgium and the Netherlands. Domestic production remains the largest single source, but has declined since peaking in 2000. Norwegian pipeline gas is the second-largest component, while LNG cargoes provide another route into the system.
The report says the UK has three LNG terminals and two bidirectional interconnectors with continental Europe. Interconnector flows can change direction, allowing continental imports at times of system need and exports when conditions differ. The assessment also lists eight gas storage sites in Great Britain. They supplied an amount equivalent to 5% of total winter gas demand in 2025–26, according to the department’s analysis. Storage contributes short-term flexibility but must itself be replenished from supply sources.
DESNZ says the UK continues to meet the statutory N−1 infrastructure standard. The 2026 assessment cited in National Gas’s Winter Outlook indicates the system could supply a one-in-20 peak-demand day even if its single largest supply infrastructure asset were lost. This is a defined stress test, not a claim that every disruption scenario is covered. The government says it continues to consider policy action for low-probability, high-stress conditions into the 2030s and beyond.
Risks identified include geopolitical instability, competition for global LNG, changing economics for storage and interconnectors, sudden peak-day demand, cyber threats and severe weather. The assessment says these are not expected to undermine near-term security, while calling for monitoring and coordination among government, regulators and industry. It also notes that gas demand fell 1% in 2025 from 2024: increased gas use for electricity generation was offset by lower industrial and service-sector demand.
The report places gas within a changing energy system. In 2025 it accounted for 35% of total UK energy demand and remained important for heating, electricity generation and industry. DESNZ says the UK Continental Shelf will naturally deplete over time and gas is expected to shift from baseload supply toward system flexibility as the country pursues net zero. These are contextual assessments, not forecasts of a specific production level or timetable. The publication updates risk monitoring; it does not announce a new supply project or change consumer tariffs.