Yüksel Güler: “The world is entering a new energy order; the issue is no longer just the price of oil, but the security of energy”

“2026 showed us that energy is still at the centre of world politics”

Wellficent: How do you assess 2026 from the perspective of energy markets?

Yüksel Güler: 2026 reminded us of an extremely important truth: energy has never been merely an economic commodity. Energy is also a matter of foreign policy, national security, industrial policy and geopolitical power.

For a long time, when assessing the oil price, it could be enough to look at the balance of supply and demand, inventory levels, OPEC+ production policies and global economic growth. Today that equation has become far more complex.

Which strait an oil tanker can pass through, whether a refinery can operate safely, whether an LNG terminal is under political risk, whether trade routes will stay open and whether countries will draw on their strategic reserves are now a direct part of the pricing mechanism.

The political and geopolitical developments around the world in 2026 significantly increased the pressure on oil prices. But in my view it would be a mistake to look only at the oil price. The real change is that energy security has once again moved to the centre of countries’ economic strategies.

Today, governments are no longer asking only, “How cheaply can I buy energy?”

They are asking: “Where do I get my energy from, which route does it come through, do I have an alternative if that route closes, how resilient is my power system in a crisis, and who controls my critical infrastructure?”

This is an extremely important paradigm shift.

“A problem in Hormuz is no longer only the Middle East’s problem”

Wellficent: Why do developments in the Middle East affect the oil market so quickly?

Yüksel Güler: Because geography is still extremely decisive in the energy market.

When you look at the world map in terms of energy flows, you see that certain points carry extraordinary strategic importance. The Strait of Hormuz is foremost among them. Bab el-Mandeb, Suez and other critical sea lanes are the same.

A serious disruption on one of these routes does not affect only the countries in that region. It spreads across a very wide economic chain, from a refinery in Asia to an industrial plant in Europe, and from airlines to logistics companies.

Moreover, the market does not price only supply losses that have already happened. Potential risk is priced too.

This is one of the important characteristics of energy markets.

The possibility of a pipeline closing before it closes, the risk of an attack before a terminal is damaged, or uncertainty over safe passage before a strait is fully closed can all start to enter prices.

That is why the geopolitical risk premium can at times move even faster than physical supply losses.

What we saw throughout 2026 showed us once again that energy infrastructure is now strategic security infrastructure, beyond classic economic infrastructure.

“How long oil stays at 100 dollars matters as much as reaching it”

Wellficent: How do you view the rise in oil prices?

Yüksel Güler: I do not think it is enough to interpret a particular oil price level on its own.

Oil above 100 dollars is of course important for the world economy. But for me the more critical question is this: is this price the result of a temporary geopolitical shock, or a sign of a structural imbalance that will persist for a long time?

Because their economic effects are completely different.

A short-lived price spike can be partly managed with reserves, alternative supply sources or higher production. But high energy prices that persist for a long time spread into almost every part of the economy, from inflation to transport, from fertiliser to steel, and from power generation to consumer prices.

Energy is in fact the invisible input of the economy.

Many people judge the oil price only by the fuel they buy for their car. Yet the price of oil affects logistics costs, agricultural production, petrochemicals, plastics, aviation and the cost chain of thousands of different products.

That is why a prolonged rise in the oil price is not just an energy-sector issue; it is a macroeconomic issue.

“Releasing strategic reserves sends an important message”

Wellficent: How do you read major economies drawing on their strategic oil reserves?

Yüksel Güler: The concept of a strategic reserve was created precisely for periods like this.

But there are two different messages here.

The first is physically easing the market.

The second is the psychological message.

Governments are telling the markets: “If there is a serious problem with security of supply, we have the capacity to intervene.”

This can reduce volatility in the short term.

But we must also remember that reserves are not infinite. Strategic stocks can mainly be used to manage temporary shocks. They are not the solution to structural supply problems.

The long-term solution is to develop source diversification, production capacity, storage, LNG terminals, pipelines, power grids, nuclear capacity and renewable energy investment together.

I do not see energy security as a problem that can be solved by a single technology.

“The Russia-Ukraine war permanently changed the energy map”

Wellficent: What will be the long-term effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the energy market?

Yüksel Güler: One of the most important consequences of this war was that it changed how Europe looks at energy security.

It is also extremely significant that energy infrastructure itself has become part of the conflict.

Refineries, power plants, transmission lines, natural gas infrastructure and critical logistics points are now at the centre of the war’s economic consequences.

The big lesson to draw from this is the following:

The resilience of a country’s energy system should not be measured only by how much generation capacity it has.

How much of your generation capacity is centralised, how many different sources your fuel supply comes from, how resilient your grid is, how quickly critical transformers and equipment can be replaced, and whether you have reserve capacity also matter a great deal.

In the coming years, “energy resilience” — the resilience of energy systems — will become a much bigger investment area.

This is also extremely important for the fields we operate in: power generation, energy infrastructure, EPC, energy equipment and power systems.

“Reading US-China rivalry only as a trade war would be incomplete”

Wellficent: How is the rivalry between the United States and China affecting the energy sector?

Yüksel Güler: It is not right to assess US-China relations only through customs tariffs.

There is a much bigger technological and industrial competition here.

Semiconductors, artificial intelligence, batteries, electric vehicles, solar panel manufacturing, critical minerals, energy storage systems and electricity infrastructure are important elements of this competition.

Economic power in the 21st century will not be measured only by the size of your oil reserves.

How much electricity you can generate, how reliably you can transmit it and whether you can turn that electricity into high value-added production will also be decisive.

That is why we cannot assess the industrial policies of the United States and China separately from their energy policies.

Energy is becoming the infrastructure of the technology race.

“Electricity is the invisible raw material of artificial intelligence”

Wellficent: Does artificial intelligence really have a big enough impact to change the energy sector?

Yüksel Güler: Absolutely.

Today we mostly talk about artificial intelligence from a software perspective, but in the physical world AI needs data centres in order to run, and data centres need very substantial electricity infrastructure in order to run.

I put it very simply:

The invisible raw material of artificial intelligence is electricity.

Bigger models, bigger data centres and more computing capacity mean more electricity consumption.

But the issue is not only the total amount of energy.

For a data centre, power quality, continuity, grid capacity and backup systems are extremely critical.

That is why, over the next decade, AI investment will not only grow technology companies.

It will also directly affect transformer manufacturers, transmission system companies, electrical engineering firms, EPC contractors, gas turbine manufacturers, the nuclear energy sector and energy storage technologies.

In a sense, the digital economy is reconnecting to physical energy infrastructure.

“Electricity will be one of the most strategic commodities of the coming period”

Wellficent: Do you think the importance of oil will decline?

Yüksel Güler: Oil will remain extremely important in the world economy for a long time to come.

But the centre of gravity of the energy system is moving steadily towards electricity.

Electric vehicles, data centres, artificial intelligence, industrial electrification, heat pumps and the growth of digital infrastructure are increasing electricity demand.

That is why I think electricity infrastructure will be one of the largest investment areas of the coming period.

The world needs very substantial investment in generation capacity, but building new power plants alone is not enough.

The electricity that is generated has to be transported.

Transmission lines, distribution systems, high-voltage equipment, transformers, switchgear, energy storage and grid management technologies are therefore becoming just as critical.

In many countries today, building a new power generation project has started to become easier than finding grid connection capacity.

This is an extremely important signal.

“A serious new era is beginning for nuclear energy”

Wellficent: How do you assess nuclear energy returning to the agenda?

Yüksel Güler: I do not think it is surprising.

On the one hand we are trying to reduce carbon emissions; on the other, electricity demand is growing rapidly, and at the same time we need uninterrupted baseload generation.

When you consider these three factors together, it is quite natural for nuclear energy to return to the agenda.

Round-the-clock, uninterrupted electricity is very important, especially for data centres and energy-intensive industries.

Renewable energy is an indispensable part of the transition, but the system has to be balanced during hours when there is no sun or not enough wind.

That is why I do not think we will see a future in which a single energy source wins.

We will instead see hybrid systems in which nuclear, natural gas, solar, wind, hydropower and energy storage work together.

“Natural gas’s role as a transition fuel may last longer than we thought”

Wellficent: How do you see the future of natural gas?

Yüksel Güler: I think natural gas will continue to play an important role, especially in balancing power systems.

As renewable capacity grows, so does the need for flexible generation capacity.

One of the advantages of gas turbines is that they can come online quickly when needed.

At the same time, thanks to LNG, we see natural gas trade becoming increasingly global.

In the past, natural gas was geographically much more dependent on pipelines. LNG changed its character.

This in turn increases the importance of the United States, Qatar, Africa, Australia and other producing regions for global energy security.

However, 2026 clearly showed us that LNG is not independent of geopolitics either.

“The energy transition has not ended; it is becoming more realistic”

Wellficent: Will recent developments slow the green energy transition?

Yüksel Güler: I do not think the energy transition will come to an end. On the contrary, it will continue.

But I think the transition will become more pragmatic.

Energy policy needs to achieve three goals at the same time:

Energy needs to be sustainable.

It needs to be economically affordable.

And above all, it needs to be reliable.

If you focus on only one of these, the system will not be sustainable.

If you lose energy security, you can lose industry.

If you cannot control energy costs, you can lose your competitiveness.

If you completely neglect the environmental transition, you will face other problems in the long run.

The energy system of the future therefore has to be based on engineering, not ideology.

“This period opens an important window of opportunity for Türkiye”

Wellficent: What position can Türkiye hold in this new energy order?

Yüksel Güler: Türkiye’s geographical position is extremely strong.

We are located between Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Mediterranean.

But geographical location alone is not an advantage. That position needs to be supported by infrastructure and industrial capacity.

I do not think it is enough for Türkiye to be only a country that energy passes through.

It needs to be a hub that manufactures energy equipment, carries out its engineering, builds power plants, produces transformers, develops grid technologies and exports EPC services to neighbouring countries.

That is where the real added value lies.

Türkiye has substantial engineering experience in energy. We have a strong manufacturing ecosystem that can reach Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.

If we use this correctly, in the coming period we can become not only a country that imports energy or provides transit, but a country that exports energy technology and engineering.

“The coming decade will be the period in which energy infrastructure is rebuilt”

Wellficent: If you had to sum up the coming years in a single sentence, what would you say?

Yüksel Güler: I think the coming decade will be a period in which the world rebuilds its energy infrastructure.

Several reasons for this have emerged at the same time.

On one side there is ageing electricity infrastructure.

On the other there is renewable energy investment.

There is new electricity demand coming from artificial intelligence and data centres.

There are electric vehicles.

There is a need to diversify sources because of geopolitical risks.

There are new nuclear and natural gas investments driven by energy security.

And there is a need for much stronger power grids to connect all of this together.

So I think the energy sector will become not only bigger but far more strategic in the coming period.

In my view, what happened in 2026 goes beyond a temporary fluctuation.

We are seeing signs of a larger transformation in the world energy system.

In the past, countries shaped energy policy mainly on the basis of cost.

Today, security has also entered the equation.

Tomorrow, energy capacity will directly mean economic and technological power.

I sum up the coming period as follows:

In the first part of the 21st century, owning oil resources was strategic power. In the coming period, the capacity to generate reliable, scalable and competitive electricity will be at least as strategic as oil.

And in my view, countries, companies and investors must take their decisions for the coming decade with this reality in mind.