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The International Energy Agency published its Electrification report on 22 September 2026. It puts electricity at around 23% of final energy consumption in 2025 and estimates that exploiting today’s cost-competitive opportunities could raise that share to 33%, holding other conditions equal. A separate High Electrification Scenario reaches 35% by 2035. These are different analytical cases, not measurements of a future outcome.
The report’s distinction between purchased energy and useful service is central to heating economics. It describes heat pumps with a typical output-to-input ratio of three to five, whereas a fuel boiler converts less than all its input into useful heat. A higher electricity price per delivered kilowatt-hour therefore does not by itself establish a higher heating bill.
For an explicitly illustrative calculation, assume electricity costs USD 120/MWh, gas USD 45/MWh, a seasonal heat-pump coefficient of performance of 3, and boiler efficiency of 90%. Energy-only useful heat costs are then USD 40/MWh for the heat pump and USD 50/MWh for the boiler. These assumed prices are not observed October tariffs, and the calculation excludes equipment, network charges, maintenance and tax.
With the same assumed gas price and boiler efficiency, the heat pump’s electricity-price break-even is USD 150/MWh. Actual seasonal performance must reflect weather, required supply temperature, defrosting and auxiliary power. A favourable annual average also does not demonstrate that a local feeder can serve the coldest coincident peak.
For procurement teams, the immediate task is to compare dated tariff schedules, measured heat demand and supplier performance guarantees. Financing, installation and any network upgrade can outweigh an operating-cost advantage. The September report supports examining opportunities; it does not replace a site-specific investment calculation.