Market forecast for Brazil’s 2026 primary deficit narrows to R$52.27 billion

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Brazil’s Finance Ministry said on 15 September that the September Prisma Fiscal survey put the market median for the 2026 central-government primary deficit at R$52.271 billion, down from R$59.145 billion in August. The survey collects private-sector forecasts; it is not the government’s recorded fiscal result.

The median 2027 deficit projection fell to R$45.35 billion from R$55 billion. The 2026 median forecast for gross general-government debt rose slightly, from 83.0% to 83.2% of GDP.