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New Zealand Treasury’s 29 September pre-election update projects the operating balance excluding gains and losses and ACC (OBEGALx) at a deficit of NZ$6.8 billion, or 1.4% of GDP, in 2026/27. It forecasts a NZ$4.0 billion surplus in 2028/29 and NZ$11.7 billion by 2030/31.
Net core Crown debt is forecast to peak at 43.9% of GDP in 2027/28 before easing to 39.5% by 2030/31. Treasury attributes the stronger outlook since its May update mainly to higher tax forecasts, while noting downside risks from weaker growth and persistent inflation.